Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF)

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Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF)

We're going to talk about Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts. A TAF is a concise statement of the expected meteorological conditions at larger airports during a specified period.

Each TAF is valid for a 24-hour time period and is updated 4 times a day, at 00000Z, 0600Z, 1200Z, and 1800Z. TAFs are issued in the following format: type, location, issuance time, valid time, and forecast.

TAFs use the same code as used in METAR weather reports. Now down here below on this picture, you can see the METARs. I talked about the Aviation Weather Center website, aviationweather.gov, and how you can scroll over the different airports for your METARs.

You can do the same thing for the TAFs. It works exactly the same way, so I encourage you again, go to aviationweather.gov and try that out. A TAF is a report valid for 5 statute mile radius around an airport.

A TAF's terminal area then extends out an additional 5 statute miles, so 10 statute miles total. We'll zoom in here and I'll show you the graphic here. You've got the airport right in here. The base, the main meat of that forecast, extends from the center of the airport out five statute miles.

Anything outside of that, so between 5 statute miles all the way out to 10 statute miles like it shows right in here, is going to be considered "in the vicinity." So when you see something listed in the TAF that says "in the vicinity," it's between that 5 and 10 statute miles. Nothing is forecasted outside that 10 miles, so TAFs only go out 10 statute miles.

TAFs are not intended to forecast weather beyond 10 statute miles. They are a "point forecast" and not a zone or area forecast. What this means is, it is not a good idea to just scan all the TAFs and assume the lack of a forecast for thunderstorms in a TAF means that there's an absence of thunderstorms en route.

Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF)

The area forecasts, on the other hand, will have an indication when pulse or air mass thunderstorms are possible, even when the TAFs are silent on the issue. It is very common in the summer for terminal forecasts to be void of thunderstorms when the area forecast has a clear indication of isolated or widely scattered thunderstorms.

For an example, around here, we've got McCarran, we've got North Las Vegas, we have Nellis Air Force Base, and then we have Henderson. So there's several airports all around the Las Vegas area. Each one of them issues a TAF.

There are many, many times when none of the TAFs say anything about a thunderstorm, but yet you look out in the distance, it's only 10 statute miles away to the mountains, and there's thunderstorms brewing out there.

You can see lightning, rain, all kinds of terrible stuff that you don't want to go fly in. You're not going to get that stuff from the TAF. Like I said, if it's outside that 5 statute miles or the 10 statute miles, it's not even going to say it's in the vicinity.

If it's inside the 5, it will tell you that it's there. If it's inside the 10, it will just say "thunderstorms in the vicinity."

If it's outside that 10 statute miles, it won't say a thing.

TAF elements:

We have a TAF report. You have the routine TAF and then you have an amended TAF.

The amended TAF is kind of like a SPECI for the METAR, but it's for the TAF instead. The TAF itself is going to have the ICAO station identifier, the date and time prepared, the valid period, and the forecast conditions: wind, visibility, weather, sky conditions. Let's take a look at this guy right here.

We have a TAF; it's for Brownsville, Texas. It's valid on the 30th day at 0545Z. That's when it was prepared, and it's valid from the 30th day at 06Z to 06D on the following day. The winds are variable at 4 knots, 3 statute miles, scattered at 4,000 feet; overcast at 15,000 feet. Now, temporarily, between 21Z and 24Z, they have rain showers.

From 0200Z, the winds are going to be 100 at 10 knots with greater than 6 statute miles, overcast at 2,000, becoming between 03 and 06Z, no significant weather, broken at 2,000 feet.

A lot of times, what you'll see is you're going to have all this whole TAF that's going to be all jumbled into a bunch of different lines like that. What I like to do is break it out. So where this Tempo is, put a return on there. Break that into a second line. When it gets to the From, break it into a second line.

Then, from the Becoming, break it into a second line. What I mean by that is this first line here, from the whole TAF all the way until it gets to the Tempo, that's what the overarching weather is going to be. It's going to stay like that.

Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF)

Then, the Tempo group is saying temporarily, between 21 and 24, this is what the weather is going to be. After that, it's going to go back to this, to the main, overarching weather. Then, we've got a Becoming group. So it says Becoming between 03 and 06Z.

It just means sometime between those three hours, the weather is going to go away, so no significant weather, and then broken clouds at 2,000 feet. So, if you break that down, it doesn’t look like it's all running into each other.

Let's take a look at how one should look. Anytime I get one of these, I try to break it down. A lot of your newer weather forecasting products, your aviationweather.gov, your DUATs, your 1-800wxbrief website, they're all going to break it down like this. If it doesn't, on your written test, they'll put them all together.

So just write it out like this. Here's one for us. It's from Oklahoma City. It's prepared on the 18th day at 1135Z. It's valid from the 18th day at 12Z to 12Z on the following day. The winds are 170 at 10 knots, greater than 6 statute miles, scattered at 8,000, broken at 10,0000, overcast at 14,000.

Now, that's going to stop the overarching weather, so that's what predominantly is going to prevail during that whole time. Then, we've got a Tempo group saying, temporarily, between 12 and 16Z, we're going to have light rain showers, broken at 6,000, overcast at 8,000. So after 16Z, now we have a From. Now, this is changing.

When you have a From, it's going to change the base. So you've got From 1600Z, winds are going to be 180 at 14 knots, greater than 6 statute miles, broken at 5,000 feet, overcast at 10,000 feet.

Then, here again, we've got another Tempo group. So, temporarily between 16Z and 20Z, you're going to have 5 statute miles with light rain showers, mist, overcast at 3,000. Then, from 2000, you're going to have 160 at 11 knots, greater than 6 statute miles, light rain, overcast at 5,000, with a probability of 30% between 00Z and 06Z, of 3 statute miles with rain showers and thunderstorms, mist, overcast at 2,500 feet, with cumulonimbus clouds. From 0600Z, you're going to have winds 170 at 10 knots, 5 statute miles, light rain, mist, broken at 2,500 feet, overcast at 4,000 feet.

Then, temporarily, between 8Z and 12Z, you're going to have 4 statute miles with rain showers and thunderstorms, mist, broken at 1,500, overcast at 4,000 with cumulonimbus tops. You can see how they can break it down into each separate line. Any time you get one of those things, it changes what the overarching weather is, and it's a new line. I recommend kind of breaking it down that way. That's the quick and dirty about the Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts.

Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF)

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